Iran Expects Gas Shortfall in Winter

The government spokesperson has forecast a gas imbalance of 430 million cubic meters this winter, saying pressure may drop in the northern provinces and that the stability of Tehran's gas supply depends on consumption levels. Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Fatemeh Mohajerani said gas refineries were damaged in the recent enemy attacks, cutting the country's gas production capacity by 230 million cubic meters. In previous years the winter gas shortfall was around 300 million cubic meters, she said. Accounting for the lost capacity, and assuming 100 million cubic meters of the damaged capacity comes back online, the shortfall this winter is projected to reach about 430 million cubic meters.

She said the oil and gas industry is working to rebuild the damaged facilities. In light of the Meteorological Organization's forecasts and the conditions ahead, she added, the necessary measures, including reconstruction and planning to manage the shortfall, began some time ago. Noting that some cities, particularly in the northern and northeastern provinces, sit at the end of the gas distribution network, the spokesperson said their location makes these areas more exposed to pressure drops, so keeping the network stable there is especially important. Mohajerani stressed the difference between managing the gas and electricity networks. Unlike electricity, which can be reconnected quickly after an outage, restoring gas after a cutoff is a time-consuming process, she said, so the stability of the gas network is critical and disruptions must be prevented. On coordination with the governors of provinces at risk of pressure drops, she said they have been briefed on possible conditions and planned measures since the summer, and have been given the authority to take the necessary initiatives. She thanked the governors for their cooperation.

Consumption Management and Energy Saving Are the Key to Getting Through This Winter

Asked about the possibility of gas cuts in Tehran, the spokesperson said Tehran residents are no different from other Iranians, and everyone must take part in managing consumption and saving energy to get through the winter. The likelihood of a cutoff in Tehran, as elsewhere in the country, depends on consumption, she said. If consumption rises sharply, gas could be cut anywhere, Tehran included. Responding to a question about industries' difficulties securing fuel, rising gas costs and reports of factory closures due to electricity and gas restrictions, Mohajerani said that despite the natural growth in energy demand this year and the damage to the country's gas facilities, industries' lost-profit losses in the Iranian year 1404 fell significantly compared with 1403. Describing the difficult energy supply conditions this year, she said the enemy targeted the country's industries and gas refineries in an attempt to make it harder to supply gas to industry and to get through the winter. To cope, the government has made consumption management and saving a priority, alongside restoring part of the damaged capacity.

On reports that some industries would shut down for four months because of electricity and gas shortages, and that the gas price they pay would rise by 430%, she said these figures need to be reviewed and verified. Numbers announced at official briefings must be accurate, she said, since other media and circles may cite them as official statistics. Stressing the need for public participation in reducing energy use, Mohajerani said joining consumption-reduction campaigns is one way to get through the current situation. Lowering household heating devices by just one degree could save the equivalent of 25 million cubic meters of gas, she said. She added that public cooperation in managing energy consumption could allow a more stable gas supply to industry and help the country's industries keep operating with fewer restrictions.

Subsidized Gasoline Prices Will Not Change

Asked about public concern over a possible gasoline price increase after authority to review and reform energy carrier prices and rationing was handed to a special working group, the spokesperson said the price of gasoline in the first and second quotas will not change in the coming months. Mohajerani stressed that the government has no plan to raise gasoline prices in these two quotas. Any increase from any source or structural reform would be spent on people's livelihoods and on funding the electronic coupon (kalabarg) program, she said. She repeated that the first- and second-tier rationed gasoline prices will not change, and that if any change is made in other categories, the public will be consulted first. - Shana