Oil Prices Climb as Trump Threatens New Strikes on Iran

Crude oil prices extended their earlier climb after President Trump issued his latest threat to Iran, following the first exchange of fire in weeks. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at US$91.48 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at US$86.97 per barrel, both up by over US$1 per barrel from Monday.

Speaking at the Oval Office on Monday evening, Trump was very clear that the U.S. was ready to "smack" Iran if necessary.

Shipping data shows tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a fraction of pre-war levels, with Reuters citing figures suggesting daily oil flows out of the Persian Gulf averaged 6 million barrels, with Kpler data showing just five commodity vessels traversing the waterway on Monday. This is below the ten-day average of 14 vessels, Reuters noted in a report.

“Oil producers in the region have grown more comfortable shuttling crude through the key chokepoint in recent weeks,” ING commodity analysts wrote in a note on Monday. “Reports have 6-8m b/d transiting the strait, although we assume an average of 5m b/d. Further escalation could put these flows under renewed pressure.”

“Despite satellite tracking firms suggesting oil flowing through Hormuz is around 6 million barrels per day, that is well below pre-conflict levels," ANZ analysts said in a note cited by Reuters. “In the meantime, the buffers the global oil market has been relying on are becoming exhausted. U.S. inventories are nearing minimum levels, while China's ability to keep imports low will be tested as seasonal demand picks up.”

The analyst comments reflect a growing unease on oil markets about the prospects of supply security as demand begins to pick up, driven by seasonal factors. Yet what is a troubling supply situation in crude oil is more than troubling in diesel.

The fuel that many call the workhorse of the economy is already in tight supply, which is getting tighter. Russia just extended a diesel export ban until the end of this month amid continued Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. Diesel fuel exports from the Middle East are compromised by the Hormuz blockade and refinery damage across the region as well. - Oil Price