Oil Falls after US-Iran Talks Signal Easing Supply Risks

Global oil prices fell on Monday after U.S.-Iran talks concluded in Switzerland with Tehran saying ‌it had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, easing worries about a supply shortage in global markets.
Brent crude was down 61 cents at US$79.96 a barrel by 0815 GMT. Prices had climbed to US$82.30 at the start of trading because of threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to restart ​the war on Iran, as well as an announcement from Tehran that it had again closed the Strait of ​Hormuz.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at US$77.20 a barrel, up 60 cents, ahead of ⁠the contract's expiry later on Monday. The more-active August contract gained 19 cents to US$76.04 a barrel.
"Progress between the U.S. and ​Iran in the talks in Switzerland is likely the main factor weighing on oil prices today," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo ​said. High-ranking U.S. and Iranian officials wrapped up their first round of talks in Switzerland on Monday, mediators said. The discussions began on Sunday under the terms of a memorandum of understanding reached last week to extend a tenuous ceasefire from April for at least another 60 days.

Iranian ​Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said his country had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen ​assets, and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan for Iran. Iran has resumed exports of its oil, which were blocked earlier this ‌month ⁠due to the U.S. naval blockade, Staunovo added. "The 'release' of those barrels is additional supply for the market," he said.

SUPPLY RECOVERY REMAINS CHALLENGING
More than 25 million barrels of Iranian oil have passed through the virtual blockade line since Monday, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company told state TV on Sunday. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq have offered more oil to customers in ​the past week. Iraq plans to restore ​crude production gradually to ⁠between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day, its deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in a statement on Sunday.

ANZ expects around 2 million–3 million barrels per day ​to be restored in the first four weeks. Recovery will remain challenging, it said, with a ​further 2 million–3.5 ⁠million bpd potentially recoverable in the third quarter of 2026 subject to stability, while 1 million–2 million bpd of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. "Early gains will be driven by logistics (shipping) rather than production," ANZ added. "Later gains will depend on upstream ⁠and refinery ​recovery. Full restoration is unlikely this year." Meanwhile Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at ​least 20 people on Saturday, Lebanon's state news agency NNA said, one day after a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect. - Reuters