IEA Sees Global Oil Supply Growth Driving Larger Market Glut

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, signalling a deeper surplus in 2026.

"Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards," the IEA said.

The agency expects global oil supply to grow by around 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 now, and 2.5 million bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd on the month.

With supply outpacing demand, the IEA's November report implies that in 2026 total oil supply will be 4.09 million bpd higher than total demand, up from an implied surplus of 3.97 million bpd in its last monthly report.