OPEC+ Leaning Towards Another Meager Crude Production Hike in December

OPEC+, the world’s largest grouping of oil-producing nations, is leaning towards a modest output boost in December, four sources familiar with the talks said, as they push on with monthly increases aimed at clawing back market share.

Having curbed production over several years in a bid to support the oil market, the group, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, started easing those curbs in April.

In a series of monthly increases, eight OPEC+ members have boosted output targets by a total of over 2.7 million barrels per day - or about 2.5% of global supply. That is just under half the 5.85 million bpd cumulative cuts in supply the group had agreed in preceding years.

OPEC+ in full has 22 members and pumps about half the world's oil.

SOURCES SEE OUTPUT TARGET BOOST OF 137,000 BPD

The eight are likely to agree on Sunday to increase December output targets by another 137,000 bpd, two of the four sources said, while the other two sources gave no estimate. All sources declined to be identified by name.

The producer group most recently decided to raise targets by 137,000 bpd for November.

Additional supply from OPEC+ helped drive oil prices to a five-month low on Oct. 20 on concern that a glut was building. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies last week, spurring a rally above US$66 a barrel and easing investor worries about a glut.

The group has found the most recent monthly increases more difficult to agree because sanctions are making it difficult for Russia to find buyers for additional output.

Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest OPEC+ producers, have over the past years sometimes disagreed on the size of output rises but ultimately found a compromise.

OPEC, the office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and Saudi Arabia's government media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The group should consider a pause in output target increases to account for the seasonal slowdown in demand heading into the northern hemisphere winter, a fifth source said.

OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some other smaller producers.

MOSCOW WARY OF LARGER INCREASES

Last month, Russia agreed to the modest 137,000 bpd hike but sources said it was wary of making a larger increase. In late May, Moscow and other producers advocated for a pause in increases, but ultimately agreed a hike.

Trump put pressure on OPEC and Saudi Arabia earlier this year to lower oil prices. Sunday's OPEC+ meeting comes ahead of a planned visit next month by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington, where he'll meet Trump.

The OPEC+ output cuts of 5.85 million bpd were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd and 1.65 million bpd by the eight members, and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group.

The eight producers meeting on Sunday fully unwound one element of those cuts - 2.2 million bpd - by the end of September. Since October, they have started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd of cuts with two monthly increases of 137,000 bpd.