Oil Falls as Investors Weigh Supply Surplus Outlook, US-China Trade Tensions

Oil prices fell in early trade on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's warning of a supply surplus in 2026 and U.S.-China trade tensions that could hurt demand. Brent crude futures fell 12 cents, or 0.19%, to US$62.27 a barrel by 0021 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declined by 10 cents, or 0.17%, to US$58.60. Both contracts closed at five-month lows in the previous trading session.

The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday the global oil market could face a surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day, a bigger glut than it earlier expected, as OPEC+ producers and rivals raise output and demand remains sluggish. Weighing on the demand outlook, the United States and China began imposing additional port fees on ocean carriers, while Beijing also announced sanctions against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean.

Trade tensions between the world's two largest economies intensified last week after China announced a major expansion of rare earth export controls and President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export curbs from Nov. 1. "Beyond U.S.-China trade relations and the progress of talks, the key for oil prices now is the degree of oversupply, reflected in changes in global inventories," said Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures.

For a view on U.S. demand, traders will be awaiting weekly inventory data. U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to have risen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 200,000 barrels in the week to October 10. The weekly industry report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday, and U.S. Energy Information Administration data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday. Both reports are delayed by a day due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day holiday on Monday.