Latest OPEC+ Move Modest, But Psychologically Significant: Omani Energy Analyst

Sunday’s decision by OPEC+ members, including the Sultanate of Oman, to increase output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October “underscores a collective commitment to market stability”, said Ali al Riyami, a prominent Omani energy analyst. In a post, Al Riyami — formerly a senior official at Oman’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals — said the announcement by the eight-member OPEC+ alliance represents a phased strategy to roll back 1.69 million bpd in voluntary cuts previously announced, a volume that had originally been scheduled for restoration by the end of next year. “While the volume may appear modest in quantitative terms, its psychological and symbolic impact on market sentiment could be more pronounced — particularly as traders and analysts look for signals on the coalition’s evolving stance”, Al Riyami noted.

Following the announcement, Oman’s production quota for October is set at 804k bpd, slightly higher than its September level by 3k bpd. The corresponding quotas of the other seven OPEC+ members are: Algeria (963k bpd), Iraq (4,237k bpd), Kuwait (2,559k bpd), Saudi Arabia (10,020k bpd), UAE (3,387k bpd), Kazakhstan (1,556k bpd) and Russia (9,491k bpd). Al Riyami further stated that the accelerated pace of production adjustments “reflects a shared assessment that current market fundamentals — ranging from low inventory levels to resilient global economic indicators — allow for a cautious recalibration without jeopardising balance”. According to OPEC, the eight countries will continue to monitor and assess market conditions closely. In their ongoing efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts announced in November 2023. The eight OPEC+ countries will next meet on October 5, 2025 as part of their monthly review of market conditions, conformity and compensation.