IMF Forecasts Modest Growth for Iran’s Economy in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Iran’s economy will reach a gross domestic product of US$1.746 trillion in 2025 based on purchasing power parity, an increase of US$51 billion compared to the previous year. However, the Fund expects the country’s GDP per capita, also based on PPP, to decline slightly from US$17,222 in 2024 to US$17,103 this year.

The IMF estimates Iran’s GDP at current prices will fall from US$401 billion in 2024 to US$341 billion in 2025, marking a US$60 billion decrease. It also forecasts a significant slowdown in real economic growth, with a rate of just 0.3% this year, down from 3.4% in 2024.

According to the report, inflation is expected to rise from 32.6% in 2024 to 43.3% in 2025. The volume of exports of goods and services, which expanded by 4.6% last year, is projected to shrink by 5%. Imports, which grew by 10.6% in 2024, are forecast to contract by 9.6% this year.

Despite these trends, Iran is expected to maintain a positive current account balance of US$3 billion in 2025. This reflects a decline of US$7.9 billion from the US$10.9 billion surplus recorded in 2024 but indicates the country will continue to generate more income from abroad than it spends.

The IMF also anticipates a rise in the unemployment rate, from 7.7% in 2024 to 9.5% in 2025. Government revenues are expected to decline slightly from 10.65 of GDP to 9.5%, while expenditures are projected to increase marginally from 14.7% to 14.9% of GDP. As a result, gross government debt is forecast to rise from 36.8% of GDP to 39.9% this year.

Total investment is projected to remain stable at 39% of GDP, unchanged from the previous year. - Tehran Times