Rise in Oman’s May Crude Production Target

Oman’s oil production is set to rise to 768,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025 following a decision by Opec+ member countries to continue the phased rollback of previous voluntary production cuts. The increase is part of a broader move by eight Opec+ countries, including non-Opec producer Oman, to raise output in response to improving market fundamentals and a healthier global demand outlook. In a virtual meeting held on April 3, 2025, the energy ministers of the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Algeria agreed to implement a 411,000 bpd increase in collective oil production during May. This marks a continuation of the production adjustments agreed upon in December 2024 and reaffirmed in March 2025, which outlined a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts announced back in April and November 2023. “The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” the Opec Secretariat said in a press statement. “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability. The eight Opec+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.”

Under the agreement, Oman’s production ceiling for May 2025 has been set at 768,000 bpd, an increase reflecting three monthly increments—the originally planned increase for May, along with two additional monthly increases brought forward in light of sustained market recovery. The decision to front-load these increments was made to ensure the group’s continued support of market stability and to provide flexibility to respond to changing demand trends. The move comes as Oman works to balance its fiscal needs with its long-standing support for coordinated market action under the OPEC+ framework. Higher oil prices over the past year have contributed positively to Oman’s economy, and the gradual return of production provides an opportunity to further capitalize on strong demand without compromising market stability. According to the Opec+ statement, the eight producers have also confirmed their intention to “fully compensate any overproduced volume since January 2024 and to submit updated front-loaded compensation plans to the Opec Secretariat by 15 April 2025”. In addition, the eight Opec+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. They will meet on May 5 to decide on June production levels. The adjusted production targets of the other seven Opec+ countries for May are as follows: Algeria – 919K bpd, Iraq – 4,049K bpd, Kuwait – 2,443K bpd, Saudi Arabia – 9,200K bpd, UAE – 3,015K bpd, Kazakhstan - 1,486k bpd, and Russia – 9,083K bpd.