Growth Seen in Qatar’s Production in GECF's Global Gas Outlook 2050

Qatar’s natural gas production is expected to reach 244bcm in 2030 and grow to 300bcm by 2050, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has said in its Global Gas Outlook 2050.

The focus on expansion and sustainability reflects Qatar’s strategic approach to energy development, balancing growth with responsible resource management, Doha-headquartered GECF said in its ‘Global Gas Outlook 2050’, which was released here on Monday.

Qatar’s natural gas demand is projected to grow by 22bcm, reaching 71bcm by 2050, with an annual growth rate of 1.4%.

Expanding LNG export production capacity and energy sector-related needs primarily drive this increase, GECF said.

Qatar’s production stood at 169bcm in 2023, adding 4bcm primarily from the Barzan project, GECF noted.

According to GECF, Qatar’s strategy focuses on expanding its LNG capacity, with gas production projected to reach 300bcm by 2050. This significant growth requires massive investments toward the North Field Expansion Project, the world’s largest natural gas reserve.

These efforts aim to solidify Qatar’s position as a leading LNG exporter to Asia and Europe, strengthen its energy security, and align with global energy transition goals. Qatar’s stable investment environment, strengthened by long-term

contracts and established market access, further supports its growth as a reliable supplier in global energy markets.

Qatar is also diversifying its gas use by investing in fertiliser production and low-carbon gas-based solutions, including the Ammonia-7 blue ammonia project, expected to begin operations in 2026.

However, gas demand in power generation is expected to see only modest growth, GECF noted.

Qatar aims to install 4GW of large-scale solar PV capacity by 2030, reflecting its commitment to renewable energy.

GECF noted the Middle East’s long-term average annual growth rate is projected to reach 3% by 2050, reflecting a moderate slowdown compared to the historical average of 3.7% between 1996 and 2023.

This deceleration is influenced by the maturing economies of key oil and gas exporters, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, which are expected to collectively account for over 55% of the region’s GDP through mid-century.

Long-term growth rates for these countries are forecasted at 3%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively, signalling a gradual easing of economic momentum as these economies transition from reliance on hydrocarbons to more diversified economic models.

According to the outlook, the Middle East is positioning itself as a global leader in blue hydrogen production, leveraging its proximity to extensive natural gas reserves.

This strategic focus not only enables the production of low-carbon hydrogen but also fosters the establishment and expansion of hydrogen markets.

By 2050, 14% of the total incremental gas use in the region is projected to be associated with low-carbon hydrogen production. State-owned companies and government funding are driving the development of hydrogen projects, supported by advancements in CCUS technologies.

These initiatives will ensure the long-term viability of the natural gas sector while contributing to global decarbonisation goals, GECF noted.

Across the region, growing demand for natural gas in industry and power generation is expected to account for 57% of the total growth, or an additional 163bcm by 2050.

As an energy source and feedstock, industrial gas use is set to play a pivotal role, adding 83bcm over the forecast period. Expanding gas-to-chemicals, petrochemicals, fertiliser production, and light manufacturing industries will drive this growth.

“Natural gas is expected to remain integral to powering water desalination through cogeneration facilities or membrane technologies reliant on electricity,” GECF said in its latest gas outlook.