JPMorgan Analysts See No Special Saudi Aramco Dividend in 2025

Saudi Aramco is forecast to have no performance-linked dividend this year after a more balanced 2024 cash cycle following earlier bumper results that backed the special payout, JPMorgan said in a research note.

"The past 18M (18 months) has delivered elevated performance-linked dives funded by premium FY22/23 financials and we remind this cycle ends with YE24 (year-end 2024). For 2025, we forecast no special distributions following a more balanced 2024 cash cycle," the note said.

Aramco, which reports its 2024 results on March 4, has said it expects to declare total dividends of US$124.3 billion for 2024, of which US$43.1 billion would be performance-linked dividends.

The Saudi government, which directly holds nearly 81.5% of Aramco, relies on the company's payouts, which also include royalties and taxes. Its sovereign Public Investment Fund (PIF)holds another 16% of Aramco and also benefits from its dividends as PIF spends tens of billions of dollars to try to steer the economy away from oil.

The government last year sold a chunk of its longtime cash cow to raise US$12.35 billion from the second Aramco share offering after its record 2019 debut.