Change in Output Policy Not Likely at Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting

OPEC+ is unlikely to alter existing plans to raise output gradually when it meets on Monday, delegates from the producer group told Reuters, despite U.S. President Donald Trump urging OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia to bring down prices.

The meeting of top ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, is scheduled for 13:00 GMT on Monday, days after Trump called on OPEC and Saudi Arabia to pump more oil.

Four OPEC+ sources said Monday's meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee was unlikely to recommend that OPEC+ increase output more than already planned. Two others said it was too early to say. All sources declined to be identified by name.

The Saudi government communications office and OPEC did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

Kazakhstan, an OPEC+ member, said on Wednesday the group will discuss Trump's efforts to raise U.S. oil production and take a joint stance on the matter.

Earlier this week Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and several of his OPEC+ counterparts held talks. One source said these took place on the sidelines of the Arab Energy Fund's 50th anniversary celebration in Riyadh, and were not a planned OPEC meeting.

Oil prices have risen this year, with Brent crude reaching almost US$83 a barrel on Jan. 15 and settling at its highest since August, supported by concern about the supply impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia announced in January.

Prices had fallen to below US$77 on Friday, with analysts citing the potential negative economic impact of Trump's threatened tariffs against Canada and Mexico from Saturday.

OPEC+ members are currently holding back 5.85 million barrels per day of output, equivalent to about 5.7% of global supply, in a series of steps agreed since 2022 to support the market.

In December OPEC+ extended its latest layer of output cuts through the first quarter of 2025, pushing back a plan to begin raising output to April. The extension was the latest in several delays because of weak demand and rising supply outside the group.

Based on that plan, the unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts - the most recent layer - and the start of an increase for the United Arab Emirates will begin in April with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations. The hikes will last until September 2026.

One OPEC+ delegate and some analysts said that keeping the plan to start increasing output in April - rather than another delay - would be a suitable way to answer Trump's call.

"The group probably needs only to rubber stamp an intention to keep with the programme of bringing back shuttered barrels in April to keep favour," said John Evans of oil broker PVM.

Based on OPEC+'s previous practice, a final decision to go ahead with the April hike is expected around early March.