Goldman Eyes Brent Outlook Rise Due to Iranian Supply Risks

Goldman Sachs said on Friday that it expects its Brent price forecast to peak US$10-US$20 per barrel in 2025 due to potential disruptions in Iranian production.

Israel has sworn to strike Iran for launching a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday after Israel assassinated the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah a week ago. The events have increased fears of the potential for a broader war in the Middle East, helping oil prices to post their biggest weekly gains in over a year this week.

"Assuming a two million barrels per day six-month disruption to Iran supply, we estimate that Brent could temporarily rise to a peak of US$90 if OPEC rapidly offsets the shortfall, and a 2025 peak in the mid US$90s without an OPEC offset," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

"Assuming a one million barrels per day persistent disruption to Iran supply, reflecting for instance a tightening in sanctions enforcement, we estimate that Brent could reach a peak in the mid US$80s if OPEC gradually offsets the shortfall," the bank said.

However, Goldman continues to expect Brent to trade in the US$70-US$85 range, and forecast an average price of US$77 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2024 and US$76 per barrel for 2025 in case of no major supply disruption. - Reuters