Goldman Sachs Expects Tight Oil Market in 2024 on Solid Demand, Low OPEC Supply

Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to average at US$92 per barrel (bbl)in 2024, and expects the oil market to tighten at a moderate pace amid solid demand while core OPEC supply remains low.

The bank in a note dated Thursday said it expects a 0.7 million barrel per day (mb/d) deficit and a solid 1.6 million barrel per day demand growth in 2024. Goldman highlighted that while it expects the oil market to tighten at a moderate pace, still sees significant spare capacity to handle tightening shocks.

It added in the note that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is poised to maintain Brent within the US$80-US$100 range by establishing an "US$80 floor from the OPEC put, and a US$100 ceiling from spare capacity."

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of the OPEC+ group of producers, this month confirmed they would continue with additional voluntary oil output cuts until the end of the year as concern over demand and economic growth continue to weigh on crude markets.

Global benchmark Brent futures were trading around US$80 a barrel, after sinking 5% to a four month-low on Friday and on track for their fourth straight week of losses.