Oil Steadies as Tighter Supply Balances Growth Concerns

Oil steadied on Monday, after rising for three straight weeks, as looming supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers balanced concern about weakening global growth that may dampen fuel demand. Crude last week jumped more than 6%, a third weekly gain, after OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, surprised the market with a new round of production cuts starting in May.

Brent crude slipped 3 cents to US$85.09 a barrel by 0816 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 cents to US$80.78. "Those who were bearish are questioning the demand outlook in light of the cuts, whilst clearly those who were bullish are now seeing even a tighter market over the second half," ING's head of commodities research Warren Patterson said. "I am in the latter camp and still see prices moving higher from here as we go through the year."

Adding to tightness in supply has been a shutdown of Iraq's northern exports. Iraq's federal government and the Kurdish Regional Government signed a temporary agreement last week to restart the flows, but as of Thursday they hadn't resumed. Oil also drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories last week, as well as a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks, hinting at rising demand.

In global financial markets, a US inflation report to be released on Wednesday could help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates. Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve could slow down rate hikes because of the recent banking crisis, borrowing costs could still climb if inflation remains strong.

"This week's US data could be a drag on sentiment if strong numbers reinforce expectations of the Fed continuing on its tightening path, while weak numbers point to economic pain, which means either way, risk-aversion grows," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.