FAO: Iran Meat Imports to Increase, Exports to Fall Amid Output Decline

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations expects Iran to increase total meat imports and decrease exports in 2022. According to FAO’s new Food Outlook report, Iran’s meat production declined from an estimated 3.086 million tons in 2021 to 3.03 million tons forecasted in 2022. Imports are forecast to rise from 100,000 tons to 167,000 tons while exports are expected to drop from 41,000 to 23,000 tons. Consumption (total utilization) is projected to increase from 3.145 to 3.174 million tons. Bovine meat production is forecast to increase from an estimated 551,000 tons in 2021 to 568,000 tons in 2022. Imports are expected to rise from an estimated 29,000 tons to 60,000 tons, as exports are projected to fall from 9,000 to 6,000 tons. Consumption is seen to increase from 571,000 to 622,000 tons. Bovine meat production is forecast to increase from an estimated 341,000 tons in 2021 to 344,000 tons in 2022. FAO has recorded no significant bovine meat import/export for Iran during the surveyed period. Consumption is seen to increase from 342,000 to 346,000 tons. Poultry meat production is forecast to decrease from an estimated 2,183 tons in 2021 to 2,107 tons in 2022. Imports are expected to rise from an estimated 70,000 tons to 105,000 tons, while exports are projected to fall from 33,000 to 16,000 tons. Consumption is seen to decline from 2.22 million to 2.195 million tons.

The Statistical Center of Iran’s latest report shows 131,891 tons of poultry meat were produced in Iran’s official slaughterhouses during the seventh month of the current Iranian year (Sept. 23-Oct. 22), indicating a 19% decline compared with last year’s corresponding period. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, chicken accounted for 129,697 tons or 98.3% of the overall production while other types of poultry, such as turkey, quail, ostrich and partridge, amounted to 2,194 tons or 1.7% of the overall poultry output during the period under review.  A total of 54,455 tons of red meat were produced in Iran's official slaughterhouses during the month ending Oct. 22 to register a 6% decrease in output compared to the previous month and a 4% rise year-on-year. Beef accounted for 25,151 tons, or 46.2% of the overall meat production, indicating a year-on-year decline of 8%, SCI reported on its website. A total of 24,464 tons of lamb (up 18% YOY), 3,868 tons of goat meat (down 12% YOY) and 972 tons of meat from other types of livestock were produced during the one-month period, accounting for 44.9%, 7.1% and 1.8% of the total output respectively.

Bracing for Drop in Broiler Meat Production

A 40% hike in average broiler meat prices in Iran over the past few months has reportedly undermined consumption, dragging down production of poultry farms across the country, Reza Mobseri, secretary of the Iranian Meat and Poultry Producers’ Union, told local publication, Tahli Bazaar last month. “The price of poultry feed in Iran has jumped from IRR 42,000 (~US$0.12) per kg to as much as IRR 260,000 (~US$0.78) per kg,” Mobseri said, adding that this factor caused a fourfold rise in production costs in the broiler meat segment in Iran in 2022 compared with the previous year, Poultry World reported. Iranian poultry farmers have been suffering from high feed prices for the past few years, but things worsened significantly from the beginning of 2022 due to the upward price rally on the global grain market, and because the government downsized the program of centralized feed distribution among farmers at guaranteed prices. The Iranian government said this year’s food inflation would be limited to 40%. The price of chicken meat on grocery shelves jumped 26% during spring and a few percentage points more during summer.

Mobseri said there are no doubts in the industry that it would go up further. “However, the average poultry consumption is already affected. The domestic poultry market has seen a sharp decline in consumer demand. If this trend continues, it could further push prices up and force poultry breeders to scale down their production plans,” he said. “The low consumption inevitably forces the private sector to reduce production. In this background, the production of day-old chicks, which stood at 33 million units in the first week of April, reached 20 million this week.”  Iran consumes around 2.1 million tons of broiler meat per year. In the wake of Western sanctions, the Iranian authorities have put much effort into ramping up domestic poultry production since 2013, including subsidizing new farm construction. According to Mobseri, the current situation could lead to a 30-40% drop in broiler meat production due to a lack of day-old chicks. “Poultry farmers and hatcheries are considering adjusting production performance this year to minimize losses, as the market situation remains unfavorable,” he said. - Financial Tribune