Libya-Turkey Energy Deal Escalates Mediterranean Tensions

The Libya-Turkey energy deal is escalating the dangers of open conflict between Ankara and Athens. Turkey and Libya have demarcated potential oil and gas-rich zones in the Mediterranean. This maneuver has also irritated Egypt. On October 3rd, Turkey signed a preliminary agreement with Libya’s Tripoli GNA government to explore for oil and gas off the Libyan coast without specifying whether the surveys would take place in waters south of Greece, where Athens says the Turks have no right to be.

Turkey and Greece are already in constant conflict over their spheres of influence in the Aegean Sea. Recently, Germany condemned Turkey’s threats over Greece’s sovereignty of its Aegean islands. Greece’s Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias accused Turkey of exploiting “the turbulent situation in Libya to further destabilize security in the Mediterranean region and establish a regional hegemony.” The Libyan deal is now poised to threaten and expand those rivalries.

Libya-Turkey Energy Deal Escalates Mediterranean Tensions

This Ankara-Tripoli pact comes at an especially feverish time, which is only compounded by the fact that Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus will hold elections next year, throwing the risks of heightened voter patriotism into the East Mediterranean geopolitical mix over 2023.

Although Greece and Turkey regularly accuse each other of provocations over the Aegean Sea with fighter jets, the rhetoric has now been cranked up to alarming levels. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has even warned that his forces could “come down suddenly one night.” Interpreting this as a direct threat to Greek islands, Dendias warned its allies that they would need to crack down on Ankara or risk another “Ukraine” crisis.

“People underestimate the potential for conflict and there is a feeling among the US and the EU that we have seen this movie before, and nothing really changes; I don’t know if that’s the case any longer,” said Ryan Gingeras, a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in California. He said this doesn’t mean that war is imminent or likely but noted that military confrontation is now more probable.