Saudi Aramco in Unique Position to Surge Output Capacity

Saudi Aramco is uniquely positioned to respond to a surge in global oil demand according to a report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“At maximum sustainable capacity of 12 million barrels per day (bpd) and proven ability to produce even more, Aramco is one of the few companies globally that can substantially boost output without committing additional capex,” the bank said on Sunday. “We believe that Aramco is uniquely positioned in the global oil world to meet potential resurgence of oil demand.

After the collapse of oil prices in 2020 linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, the market has staged a strong recovery so far this year with a number of banks raising their price estimates for the full year.

Oil prices jumped about 3% on Friday, to reach their highest in more than a year after OPEC and its allies decided not to increase supply in April. Brent crude was up by about 4% over the week while WTI oil gained 7%.

The rapidly improving outlook for the sector has also sweetened the dividend out look for the company if the oil price remains within the US$60 to US$75 per barrel range, the bank said. “Our scenario analysis suggests that Aramco would be well placed to implement its higher dividend distribution guidance given during the IPO and even increase dividends beyond its minimum US$75 billion pledge,” Bank of Amerrca Merrill Lynch said.

The collapse of global oil demand over the last year has meant that the global onshore and offshore rig count has dropped to one of the lowest levels ever in the past few months. With Aramco holding the lion’s share of spare capacity, it is poised to capitalize on a an oil price rebound.

“Given the capex dearth, oil market deficit, and forecast demand resurgence, Aramco remains one of the very few oil companies globally with the ability to surge production substantially without committing additional capex,” the bank said.