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Friday, April 19, 2024 22:54 GMT
Saudi Arabia's preliminary budget statement for 2023 released last week shows its projected oil revenues are based on a conservative price for Brent oil, analysts said.According to Al Rajhi Capital, oil revenues for the kingdom in 2023 could reach SAR 754 billion (US$200.61 billion) “Based on our assessment, the government’s 2023 budgeted revenues are likely based on an assumption of Brent at around US$76 a barrel,” said Mazen Al Sudairi, head of research at the brokerage.According to Emirates NBD, the Saudi finance ministry "has likely based projected revenues on a conservative oil price assumption of around US$80/barrel, which is much lower than our forecast of an average of US$105/barrel in 2023."On Monday, Brent crude futures rebounded US$2.51, or 3%, to US$87.65 a barrel from Friday, as OPEC+ is reported to be considering an output cut by more than 1 million barrels a day in a bid to support the market. The median price forecast for Brent in 2023 is US$94, according to a Reuters poll.Meanwhile, the Saudi government preliminary budget estimates expect total revenues to reach SAR 1.12 trillion (US$30 billion), 17% higher than the previously announced of SAR 968 billion (US$257.55 billion).Expenditure in 2023 is estimated at SAR 1.11 trillion (US$30 billion), 18% higher than the earlier announcement. The Saudi government now expects a budget surplus of SAR 9 billion (US$2.4 billion) for 2023, lower than the SAR 27 billion (US$7.2 billion) estimated earlier. Emirates NBD had forecast SAR 330 billion (US$87.8 billion) surplus. The government has forecast GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023; which is "slightly lower than our 3.5% forecast," the lender said.